Will Phil See His Shadow? Jan. 27, 2014

FROM WHERE I SIT  WILL PHIL SEE HIS SHADOW?  JAN. 27, 2014  

P.D. SPILSETH

Will spring ever arrive?   According to folklore, spring’s arrival is determined by a groundhog.  February 2, Groundhog Day, is that fateful day when we check to see if the groundhog/hedgehog will emerge from his hole and see his shadow or not.  That animal’s risky forcast determines the weather.

In western countries in the Northern Hemisphere, the official first day of spring is almost seven weeks (46–48 days) after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or March 21.  Here in MInnesota, we’ll still have endless months of cold, wind and snow to endure.  Then come the rains, umbrellas, mud, boots and mess. It’s a LONG way until summer!  

According to my internet searches, one popular tradition tells me that there has been only one Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog who gets his longevity from drinking "groundhog punch". One sip, administered every summer at the Groundhog Picnic, gives him seven more years of life.

On February 2, Phil comes out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob, in front of thousands of faithful followers from all over the world, to predict the weather for the rest of the winter.  According to legend, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather. If he does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring. 

The celebration of Groundhog Day began with the Germans, Pennsylvania's earliest settlers. They brought with them the legend of Candlemas Day, which states "For as the sun shines on Candlemas day, so far will the snow swirl in May...".  Settlers found that groundhogs were plentiful and were the most intelligent and sensible animal to carry on the legend of Candlemas Day.

Groundhog Day organizers believe that the rodents' forecasts are accurate 75% to 90% of the time.  The StormFax Weather Almanac and records kept since 1887 say that Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions have been correct 39% of the time.   National Climatic Data Center describes the forecasts as "on average, inaccurate" and stated that "The groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years."

The groundhog has been featured in several films.  At the end of Disney's 1930 Silly Symphonies short film Winter, Mr. Groundhog, the Weather Prophet, comes out of his hole to determine whether or not there will be more winter. At first, he does not see his shadow, but the clouds clear and his shadow appears, causing him to run back inside. At this point, the winds picks up again and winter continues.

The 1993 comedy movie Groundhog Day takes place in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.  The main character, played by Bill Murray, is forced to relive the day over and over again until he can learn to give up his selfishness and become a better person.

In Franklin and the Grump, Mr. Groundhog didn't want to participate in Groundhog Day any more because there were always those who were upset regardless of what he predicted so he officially canceled the holiday.  But the title character told his friends and family about the problem, and the entire community gathered to give him a day just for him.

Punxsutawney held its first Groundhog Day in the 1800's.  A similar custom is celebrated among Orthodox Christians in Serbia on February 15, when the bear awakens from winter dormancy.  If in his sleepy and confused state the bear sees its own shadow, it will get scared and go back to sleep for an additional 40 days, prolonging the winter.  If it is sunny, that’s a sign that winter is not over yet. If it’s cloudy, it’s a good sign that the winter is about to end.

Traditions and superstitions spice up our winter woes.  If we believe that the groundhog can predict the weather, believe the predictions of The Farmers’ Almanac as gospel truth and work the Ouija board to determine our future, we’re in for lots of surprises.  There are few, if any, trusted predictors of the future. 

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